Morgan Stanley initiates Amrize stock with overweight rating on M&A potential

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Amrize Ltd (OTCBB:AMRZ) with an overweight rating and a price target of $62.00 on Tuesday. Want deeper insights into Amrize’s financials? InvestingPro subscribers get access to over 100 financial metrics and expert-curated ProTips for comprehensive investment analysis.

The investment bank cited Amrize’s aggressive growth strategy, which has delivered 13% revenue and 16% EBITDA compound annual growth rates since 2021. The company has completed 17 acquisitions during this period, primarily bolt-on deals that have expanded its market presence.

Morgan Stanley projects Amrize will generate approximately $7.5 billion in cumulative free cash flow between 2025 and 2028, providing substantial financial flexibility for continued acquisitions. The company currently maintains less than 1x net debt to EBITDA ratio, which positions it favorably for additional growth opportunities.

Amrize ranks fifth in the U.S. aggregates market and holds just 3% market share in residential roofing, according to management data cited by Morgan Stanley. The firm’s base case assumes 2% annual bolt-on growth, though it notes "clear upside risk" exists if larger platform acquisitions materialize.

Morgan Stanley analysts calculate that maintaining a 1.5x net debt to EBITDA ratio could potentially accelerate Amrize’s EBITDA growth from 9% CAGR in 2025-2030 to 15%, exceeding consensus estimates for industry peers.

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