By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Each new day under the Trump administration is as intriguing as the next, and Wednesday is shaping up to be no different.
For one, the president's enthusiasm for bitcoin is spurring other countries to take a look at the asset. Most recently, Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl said he will present a plan to add billions of euros worth of bitcoin to the bank's reserves. If approved, the institution would become the first Western central bank to hold BTC as a reserve asset. Michl intends to present the plan to the bank's board on Thursday.
There's also the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later today, where the benchmark fed funds rate is expected to be held at 4.25%-4.50%. The question is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a hawkish or dovish outlook, with a knock-on effect on asset prices.
Markets seem to have shaken off concerns over the Chinese DeepSeek AI program, with bitcoin back over $102,000. U.S. equities are shy of a new all-time high as Nvidia (NVDA) stormed back with an almost double-digit increase.
After the market closes, we could see some further volatility, with major tech companies including Tesla (TSLA) reporting earnings.
Jan. 31: Crypto.com is suspending purchases of cryptocurrencies USDT, WBTC, DAI, PAX, PAXG, PYUSD, CDCETH, CDCSOL, LCRO, and XSGD in the EU to comply with MiCA regulations. Withdrawals will be supported through Q1.
Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25% to 4.5%.
Jan. 30, 5:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases Q4 GDP (Flash).
Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.4%.
Growth Rate YoY Est. 1% vs. Prev. 0.9%.
December Unemployment Rate Est. 6.3% vs. Prev. 6.3%.
Jan. 30, 8:15 a.m.: The ECB announces its interest-rate decision. This is followed by a press conference at 8:45 a.m.
Livestream link
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Deposit Facility Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%.
Main Refinancing Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.15%.
Marginal Lending Rate Prev. 3.4%.
Jan. 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases Q4 Advance GDP report.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 3.1%.
GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 1.9%.
Initial Jobless Claims for Week Ended Jan. 25 Est. 220K vs. Prev. 223K.
Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 18900K vs. Prev. 1899K.
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.2%.
PCE Prices QoQ Prev. 1.5%.
Real Consumer Spending QoQ Prev. 3.7%.
Jan. 30, 4:30 p.m.: The Federal Reserve releases H.4.1 report on Factors Affecting Reserve Balances for the week ended Jan. 29.
Balance Sheet Prev. $6.83T.
Jan. 30, 6:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases December unemployment report.
Unemployment Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%.
Jan. 30, 6:50 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases December industrial production (preliminary) report.
Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -2.2%.
Industrial Production YoY Prev. -2.8%.
Retail Sales MoM Prev. 1.8%.
Retail Sales YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 2.8%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
ENS DAO is voting whether to convert 6,000 ETH into USDC to replenish its depleted reserves, which it would use to secure a 12-month operational runway to support ongoing commitments.
Stargate Finance DAO to initiate the Hydra Expansion Program, which would allocate up to $10 million in STG tokens to support key initiatives on Hydra chains which should last 12 months.
Pocket DAO is voting whether to replace its compensation scheme with a DAO Compensation Committee of three members who would be responsible for approving Pocket Network Foundation-recommended awards.
Unlocks
Jan. 28: Tribal Token (TRIBL) to unlock 14% of its circulating supply worth $60 million.
Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.
Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.
Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock about 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.
Token Listings
Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.
Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.
Ai16z, an open-source AI agent platform, has rebranded to ElizaOS to establish a professional identity and avoid trademark issues with Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).
Shaw Walters, the founder, said on X that the rebranding will boost collaboration with established participants following a 300x growth in assets under management over three months, with plans for Eliza v2 underway.
Uniswap teased its forthcoming v4 in an X post, bumping the UNI token up 7%. The new version has significant enhancements to the Ethereum-based decentralized exchange protocol.
Key features include "hooks" for pool customization, allowing for dynamic fees and on-chain orders, a singleton contract to lower gas costs, flash accounting for efficient token transfers, and native ETH support.
Derivatives Positioning
The open interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator shows major cryptocurrencies, except Mantra's OM token, have seen net selling pressure in the perpetual futures market in the past 24 hours.
WIF's price has surged 16% alongside an uptick in open interest, while the CVD has dropped. It's a sign of traders shorting the price rally.
Futures basis remains elevated above 10% in BTC and ETH, a sign traders are chasing the upside. Annualized one-month basis in ETH's CME futures is slightly pricier than BTC, indicating relative attractiveness of ether for carry trades.
BTC and ETH options expiring this week and on Feb. 7 show a bias for puts. That's probably due to pre-Fed defensive positioning and BTC struggling to do much above $100,000.
Block flows featured a short position in BTC $130,000 call expiring on March 28.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 2.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $102,509.74 (24hrs: -0.27%%)
ETH is up 2.7% at $3,134.98 (24hrs: -1.91%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.47% to 3,733.87 (24hrs: +6.73%)
CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 13 bps to 3.96%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0101% (11.0454% annualized) on OKX
DXY is up 0.22% at 108.11
Gold is unchanged at $2,757.89/oz
Silver is unchanged at $30.16/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.02% at 39,414.78
Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11
FTSE is up 0.32% at 8,561.24
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.83% at 5,238.76
DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.31% to 44,850.35
S&P 500 closed +0.92% at 6,067.70
Nasdaq closed +2.03% at 19,733.59
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.52% at 25,419.45
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.34% at 2,338.52
U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 1 bp at 4.53%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% at 6,103.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.39% at 21,665.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 45,029.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 59.37 (-0.34%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03063 (-0.86%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 780 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.2
Total Fees: 4.72 BTC/ $483,629
CME Futures Open Interest: 171,750 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.2 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.58%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin's rally against the yen has stalled, with the MACD histogram pointing to a weakening of the upward momentum.
The BOJ raised interest rates last week to the highest in 17 years.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $335.93 (-3.45%), up 1.21% at $340 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $281.82 (+1.38%), up 1.2% at $285.20 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.87 (+1.86%).
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.26 (-0.14%), up 0.77% at $18.40 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.95 (-4.37%), up 1.83% at $11.15 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.31 (+0.27%), up 1.59% at $11.49 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.05 (-2.47%), up 1.19% at $10.17 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20.83 (+0.24%), up 1.39% at $21.12 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $52.30 (+3.71%), down 0.19% at $52.20 in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $80.16 (+8.32%), down 0.2% at $80 in pre-market.
Head of Czech Central Bank Wants It to Buy Billions of Euros in Bitcoin
(Financial Times): Aleš Michl, governor of the Czech National Bank, will propose investing up to 7 billion euros ($7.3 billion) in bitcoin to diversify reserves. If approved, the bank would be the first Western central bank to hold BTC.
Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cuts
(Bloomberg): Traders expect the ECB to cut rates aggressively, beginning with a quarter-point drop Thursday, followed by three more cuts to bring the deposit rate to 2% as U.S. tariff threats weaken the euro and boost bonds.
Growth Engine or Casino? Global Investors Rethink China Playbook
(Reuters): Hedge funds and global portfolio managers are exiting China’s equity and bond markets as vague stimulus plans and weak growth stall the CSI 300 index, reflecting declining confidence in long-term investments.
