Crypto Daybook Americas: USDC Takes January Crown as Bitcoin Looks to Core PCE Data
January 31, 2025
Category:
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market is treading water and the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, is taking a bull breather. Its upward momentum is getting stifled by Trump's renewed tariff threats, which are also sending gold prices soaring to record highs and propping up demand for the U.S. dollar.
But there is action in some corners of the market. The
VIRTUAL token popped
after its recent listing on Upbit, and Hyperliquid's HYPE token has seen a 3% gain. Litecoin is also making waves, with its perpetual futures open interest on centralized exchanges climbing to 5.19 million LTC, the most since Dec. 9, according to Coinglass. The surge hints at fresh capital flowing into the market, likely fueled by hopes of a spot ETF listing in the U.S.
Speaking of stablecoins, USDC is stealing the spotlight as the star performer this month, boasting a remarkable market cap growth of 21% to $53.12 billion. That's its best month since May 2021, according to TradingView data. In contrast, USDT, the heavyweight champion of dollar-pegged stablecoins, eked out just a 1% increase. USDC even outperformed bitcoin, which grew a respectable 10%.
According to IntoTheBlock, USDC's outperformance is likely due to its compliance with Europe’s MiCA regulations, while rivals like USDT
face tough headwinds
. But don’t count USDT out just yet; its market is starting to bounce back, and the simultaneous growth of USDC is offering a bullish impulse for the crypto market.
As we keep an eye on the macro landscape, the pivotal U.S. core PCE — the Fed’s go-to measure for inflation — is set to be released.
Expectations are
for a hot headline figure, with core reading, which excludes food and energy, showing positive improvements that might help BTC break out of its dull price action near $104,000.
However, ING is cautioning that the dollar might stay strong into the weekend.
“If we don't receive any news on Canada and Mexico by the end of today, there's a risk that the dollar could strengthen further as the market starts to price in a higher chance of tariffs being announced tomorrow,” it wrote. So, stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Jan. 31: Crypto.com is suspending purchases of cryptocurrencies USDT, WBTC, DAI, PAX, PAXG, PYUSD, CDCETH, CDCSOL, LCRO, and XSGD in the EU to comply with MiCA regulations. Withdrawals will be supported through Q1.
TRX, TRUMP and OM registered the biggest increase in perpetual futures open interest. Traders, however, seem to be shorting TRUMP, as evident from the negative cumulative volume delta.
BTC, ETH open interest and CVD are little changed. The BTC CME basis is hovering around 10%.
Flows in Deribit's options market have been muted, but BTC and ETH calls continue to trade pricier than puts.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $104,810.50 (24hrs: -0.47%)
ETH is up 2.39% to $3,324 (24hrs: +3.32%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.3% to 3,838.81 (24hrs: +0.28%)
CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps to 3.07%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0012% (1.2961% annualized) on OKX
DXY is up 0.47% at 108.30
Gold is unchanged at $2,794.77/oz
Silver is up 0.19% at $31.60/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.15% to 39,572.49
Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11
FTSE is up 0.3% at 8,673.13
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% at 5,302.75
DJIA closed on Thursday +0.38% to 44,882.13
S&P 500 closed +0.53% to 6,071.17
Nasdaq closed +0.25% to 19,681.75
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.31% to 25,808.25
S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.21% to 2,388.03
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 2 bps at 4.536%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.43% at 6,125.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.79% at 21,795.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.32% at 45,200.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 59.21 (-0.11%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03127 (0.84%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 781 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $61.7
Total Fees: 4.97 BTC/ $522,698
CME Futures Open Interest: 176,270 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 37.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 10.60%
Technical Analysis
The chart shows $60 has emerged as a strong resistance for BlackRock's IBIT exchange-trade fund since December, with bulls consistently failing to establish a foothold above that level.
Such patterns represent bullish exhaustion and often pave the way for minor price pullbacks that shake out weak hands, setting the stage for the next leg higher.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $340.09 (-0.34%), up 0.2% at $340.77 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $301.30 (+3.54%), down 0.17% at $300.80 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$29.33 (+0.83%).
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.18 (+4.13%), up 0.36% at $19.25 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.90 (+6.06%), up 0.76% at $11.99 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.26 (+6.98%), up 3.18% at $12.65 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.97 (+6.92%), up 0.55% at $11.03 in pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.50 (+6.33%), up 3.47% at $23.28 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $52.15 (+0.13%).
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $61.38 (-31.27%), down 2.23%% at $60.01 in pre-market.
The MOVE index, which represents an options-based measure of how volatile the U.S. Treasury market is likely to become in the next four weeks, has turned lower.
Declining Treasury market volatility often bodes well for risky assets.
Japan’s Economy Faces Fallout From Trump’s China Tariff Threats
(Bloomberg): Japan’s chief economist, Tomoko Hayashi, said a U.S.-China trade war could hurt her country's economy, though she believes firms are better prepared now than during Trump’s first term.
