Why the market is wrong about Bitcoin’s future
- March 12, 2025
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As Bitcoin fights to hold the $80,000 mark, market watchers are grappling with macroeconomic jitters and crypto-specific headwinds. But according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, concerns over recent market downturns — and disappointment over the White House's foray into crypto — might be missing the bigger picture.
"I think the market has overlooked what the executive order actually says," Hougan told Coinage. He added, "I think it will soon realize that that's a bullish catalyst."
The order, which directs the President's Working Group along with the Secretaries of Commerce and Treasury to investigate ways to add Bitcoin to the U.S. Strategic Reserve, has sparked debate. While some investors had hoped for an immediate government Bitcoin buy, Hougan believes the directive's long-term implications have been misread. "What it said is that the Secretary of Commerce and Treasury shall investigate ways to add Bitcoin to this balance sheet, as long as it doesn't negatively impact shareholders. Not that it may or that it could, but that they shall do it," he emphasized.
Hougan sees this as a signal to other governments as well. "The number of Bitcoin that's in the reserve today is the minimum number, and it's likely to go up in the long term. And, more than that, the signaling this provides ... will catalyze a race to acquire Bitcoin."
Still, short-term volatility is undeniable. Hougan acknowledged the risk of Bitcoin dipping back to $72,000, especially as the macroeconomic landscape wrestles with fears of tariffs and a potential recession. But he emphasized the long game. "If you're investing in Bitcoin, you're making a bet that it will be worth $1 million in the future," he said. "Whether you buy it at 80 or 70 or 90 or 100 is almost irrelevant."
Beyond Bitcoin, Hougan highlighted shifting dynamics for other crypto assets. While altcoins have historically followed Bitcoin's lead, he believes the market is moving into a new phase. "I actually think we're moving into a new regime where those assets are evaluated independently on their metrics and tractions," he said. Ethereum, for instance, may benefit from activity in Layer-2s and tokenization trends. But Solana, still recalibrating after its memecoin surge, may face headwinds . "I think there's at least a risk that Solana suffers from a narrative gap as it transitions from memecoin focused activity to more real world asset focused activity."