Several big cryptocurrencies have gone on bull runs in 2025, but
XRP
(CRYPTO: XRP)
has been the best performer so far. It's up more than 40% on the year, more than any of the other top 10 coins. XRP has also passed a price of $3 multiple times this year, a level it hadn't reached since a brief period in January 2018.
The next significant milestone would be $4, about a 22% increase from XRP's current price of $3.28 (as of Aug. 12). Is that a realistic target for the end of the year? Let's look at what could help XRP take off during the last five months of 2025.
No more legal issues with the SEC
Ripple, the issuer of XRP, spent nearly five years locked in a legal battle with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
. The SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in 2020, alleging that the initial sale of XRP was an unregistered securities offering. Most of the major crypto exchanges subsequently delisted XRP, making it much more difficult to buy.
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Last week, Ripple and the SEC agreed to dismiss their appeals. A 2023 ruling by a New York federal judge is now final, and Ripple will pay $125 million in fines, much less than the $2 billion the SEC was seeking.
The end of the lawsuit is great news for Ripple because it no longer needs to spend time and money fighting the SEC in court. The crypto market reacted quickly, with XRP's price initially surging more than 10%. But that initial surge may be the only impact we see here.
Since the U.S. elected Donald Trump as president amid promises of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, investors have been expecting a conclusion to the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple. XRP's value has skyrocketed since the presidential election largely for that reason. While the lawsuit ending is still a big deal, it probably won't continue to move the needle price-wise for XRP.
Potential spot ETF approval in October
A development that could move the needle for XRP is approval of exchange-traded funds that invest in it and sponsor ETFs. The SEC approved
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
ETFs last year. Several asset managers, including
Grayscale
,
Bitwise
, and
21Shares
, have submitted applications for XRP ETFs.
The SEC is reviewing these applications and it has set approval deadlines between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25 for all of them. Polymarket puts the odds of XRP ETF approval this year at 84%. That seems fair, considering the SEC has already approved ETFs for the two largest cryptocurrencies and isn't involved in a lawsuit with Ripple anymore.
Cryptocurrency ETFs are important because they're regulated and accessible to hedge funds, banks, and other institutional investors. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have seen inflows of about $54 billion and $10 billion, respectively, since they started trading, demonstrating the kind of impact this can have.
ETF approval is a growth catalyst that could push XRP past $4. However, it wouldn't necessarily happen overnight -- Ethereum's price didn't move much after ETF approval, and it only recently started seeing heavy inflows. There's also the possibility that the SEC doesn't approve XRP ETFs, which would be a serious headwind.
$4 may be out of reach this year for XRP
XRP is hot right now, and to its credit, it's not just some meme coin that briefly caught fire. It has a legitimate use case, facilitating transactions on Ripple's cross-border payment network. However, many financial institutions only use the Ripple payment network and not XRP, one of the potential problems with it as an investment.
It could continue to grow, especially if Ripple is able to find more ways to integrate XRP into the payment services it offers. That said, I think the most likely scenario during the rest of this year is that XRP doesn't hit $4 or even a new all-time high (currently $3.84 on Jan. 4, 2018).
Much of the good news surrounding XRP is already priced in, and other cryptocurrencies are starting to take the spotlight. Case in point, in July it was
Ethereum
, and not XRP, that delivered the highest returns among the top coins.
If you're optimistic about Ripple's payments technology and XRP's role in that, then a small investment is reasonable. Just keep in mind that XRP is extremely volatile. It may or may not reach $4 by December, but as long as you're a long-term investor, what really matters is where XRP ends up during the rest of the decade.
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Lyle Daly
has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a
disclosure policy
.
