Bitcoin (BTC) held a crucial support level at $112,500 overnight, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April to July rally. However, the rebound has been muted so far, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech later Friday.

Last month, the market bounced sharply from this same Fibonacci level, and a similar move could unfold if Powell signals a more dovish stance, hinting at faster and deeper rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, followed by another before year-end.

One analyst examining options data estimates that bitcoin could experience a 2% price swing on Powell’s speech.

A dovish tone from Powell could bring a strong bounce in ether (ETH), as the cryptocurrency hovers above its uptrend line connecting April and early August lows.

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