Is Affirm Still Attractive After Klarna Delays BNPL Data Sharing?
October 8, 2025
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If you are trying to decide what to do with Affirm Holdings stock, you are far from alone. It is easy to see why it is capturing so much attention. The share price has been all over the map lately, most recently up 4.9% in the last week and up a jaw-dropping 86.3% over the past year. Investors who stuck around for three years have seen nearly 300% returns. Still, the ride is not always smooth. In the last 30 days, the stock fell 12.2%, which might have some people wondering if the risks are heating up again.
Much of this volatility can be traced to the shifting world of "buy now, pay later" financial technology, a space Affirm knows inside and out. Big headlines have centered around Klarna’s upcoming U.S. IPO plans and moves by key players such as JPMorgan starting to charge fintechs like Affirm for data access. Additionally, the news that Klarna and others might not report BNPL loan data to credit bureaus right away could keep risk perceptions in flux for companies in this sector. All of these developments together add fuel to both the optimism and the uncertainty surrounding Affirm’s future.
But price action is only one piece of the puzzle. What about the actual value you are getting at today’s price? Here is where the analysis gets interesting. Based on six common valuation checks, Affirm only comes up undervalued in one, giving it a value score of 1. In the next section, I will break down how these valuation methods stack up and hint at a smarter, more holistic approach to understanding the company’s true worth, so stick around for that.
Affirm Holdings scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the
full valuation breakdown
.
The Excess Returns model evaluates a company based on how much profit it generates above the required cost of equity, essentially measuring how efficiently shareholder money is being put to work. For Affirm Holdings, this approach highlights the company’s current financial dynamics and growth potential as seen through the eyes of analysts.
Here are the key figures: the Book Value sits at $9.44 per share, while Affirm’s anticipated Stable Earnings Per Share (EPS) are $1.62, according to a weighted average of six analyst forecasts. The calculated Cost of Equity is $1.11 per share, which puts the Excess Return (the actual return above that cost) at $0.51 per share. Impressively, the average Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 11.77%. Analysts also project a Stable Book Value of $13.76 per share in the future (from four separate sources).
Despite these seemingly attractive figures, the Excess Returns valuation estimates an intrinsic value that is substantially below the current share price. The implied discount indicates the stock is 219.5% overvalued based on this model. This suggests that the market is currently pricing in far more growth and profitability than the Excess Returns approach justifies.
The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a preferred valuation metric for Affirm Holdings, especially given that many fast-growing technology or financial companies may not yet be consistently profitable but still generate significant revenue. The P/S ratio allows investors to compare the company’s share price to its underlying sales, making it a practical way to estimate value for firms like Affirm that are prioritizing top-line expansion.
Growth expectations and risk play a major role in determining what constitutes a "normal" P/S ratio. Higher growth and stronger market positioning can justify a premium, since investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of sales in anticipation of future profitability. Conversely, companies with higher risks or slower growth typically deserve a lower multiple.
Affirm Holdings currently trades at a P/S ratio of 7.74x. That is well above the Diversified Financial industry average of 2.70x and also higher than its peer group average of 4.03x. However, Simply Wall St's "Fair Ratio" for Affirm, based on factors like its projected growth, profit margins, risk, industry norms, and market cap, is 4.34x. The Fair Ratio is a more nuanced benchmark than a simple industry or peer comparison, as it filters in the company’s unique strengths and risks rather than painting with a broad brush.
Comparing Affirm’s actual P/S multiple to its Fair Ratio shows a notable gap. With the current multiple around 7.74x, significantly above the Fair Ratio of 4.34x, the stock appears overvalued based on this approach.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Affirm Holdings Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a powerful tool that lets you attach your real-world perspective, a story about how Affirm Holdings will grow, compete, and create value, to hard financial forecasts and an estimated fair value. Rather than relying solely on static numbers or consensus estimates, Narratives link a company’s story directly to its projected revenue, profit margins, and share price. This makes your investment thesis visible and testable.
On Simply Wall St's Community page, Narratives are used by millions of investors as an easy, accessible way to clarify whether you believe a company is undervalued or overvalued and to help guide buy or sell decisions. Narratives dynamically update as new events, news, or earnings come in, so your view stays relevant and informed.
For example, the most optimistic Narrative for Affirm assumes rapid global adoption, margin expansion, and earnings growth, supporting a fair value as high as $115. A more cautious Narrative, accounting for competition or execution risks, might see value closer to $64. Narratives let you compare your expectations to others, quickly spot consensus or disagreement, and make investment decisions based on both the numbers and the real-world story behind them.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include
AFRM
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