Oil prices slump; potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could raise supply

  • May 15, 2025
  • Category: Futures
Oil prices slump; potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could raise supply

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell sharply Thursday on concerns that a potential nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. could lead to an increase in global supply.

At 04:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Brent Oil Futures dropped 3.1% to $64.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate WTI crude futures slumped 3.3% to $61.06 per barrel.

Both contracts declined on Wednesday, stalling a four-day rally, to slip away from the two-week high reached earlier this week.

U.S.-Iran nuclear deal close - Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms.

"We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," Trump said on a tour of the Gulf, according to a pool report by AFP.

Fresh talks between Iranian and U.S. negotiators to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear program ended on Sunday, with further negotiations planned.

It was thought at the time that both sides remain deeply divided, with Tehran publicly insisting on continuing its uranium enrichment, something that is seen as something the U.S. will not accept.

That said, NBC News reported on Thursday that Iran is prepared to sign a nuclear agreement if all economic sanctions are lifted, citing Ali Shamkhani, a top political and nuclear adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The signing of a deal, and the removal of sanctions, could see Iranian oil returning to the market in force, potentially loosening the global crude supply-demand balance.
Prior to the reimposition of oil sanctions in 2018, Iran’s crude oil production capacity was around 3.8 million barrels a day for decades, and it is currently exporting in the neighbourhood of 1.6 million b/d.

U.S. crude stocks jump unexpectedly

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending May 9, reaching a total of 441.8 million barrels.

This build contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2 million barrel drawdown.

API industry data had also showed a large build of 4.3 million barrels in crude stocks last week.

This comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, known as OPEC+, has been increasing supply.

"We’ll have to wait until 1 June to see what the group decides for its output policy for July," said analysts at ING, in a note.

"Already announced supply hikes by OPEC+ should be welcomed by Trump, given his desire to see lower oil prices. However, he may want to be careful on how low prices go, given the impact it will have on the US oil industry, causing a pullback in drilling activity."

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article.

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